Ibovespa closes flat with Vale, Petrobras and Embraer in focus
On 2026-08-03, the Ibovespa closed at 178,000.24 points, with Vale and Petrobras weighing on the index while Embraer offset part of the losses with a gain above 3%.
2026-08-03
Weekly Investment Bulletin - 2026-08-03
Weekly recap with the Ibovespa near 178,000 points, expectations of a Selic cut, Wall Street rotation around AI earnings and institutional ETF flows in Bitcoin and Ether.
Weekly Bulletin - Brazil
Ibovespa falls with Itau and Petrobras after testing 180,000 points
In the 2026-08-04 session, the Brazilian market lost momentum after moving above 180,000 intraday, with banks and Petrobras among the main drags.
Marcopolo drops nearly 8% after quarterly earnings
Marcopolo shares were among the worst performers on B3 on 2026-08-04 after quarterly results came in below market expectations.
Copom is expected to cut Selic for a fourth straight meeting, Reuters says
The Reuters median survey pointed to another rate cut at the 2026-08-05 meeting, with Selic still at 14.25% and inflation above target limiting the pace of easing.
2026 inflation remains above target in the official outlook
The government raised its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1%, reinforcing the view that consumer prices remain above the central bank target midpoint.
Public debt rises and brings fiscal adjustment back into focus in Brazil
Gross public debt reached 81.9% of GDP in June, or BRL 10.8 trillion, increasing pressure for fiscal measures in the next political cycle.
OPEC+ raises oil output, impacting Petrobras and fuels
OPEC+ decided to raise production by 188 thousand barrels per day from September, a factor that can influence oil prices, inflation and related assets in Brazil.
Embraer climbs with support from export financing
The company received BNDES support to finance exports of up to 19 aircraft, contributing to a strong positive stock reaction during the week.
Rates and commodities set the tone for Brazilian assets this week
Falling commodities, Copom expectations and yield-curve adjustments kept local markets sensitive to Petrobras, Vale, banks and exporters.
Top Gainers
- EMBR3 (Embraer): up 3.1%, driven by positive expectations around BNDES export financing and external relief.
- ITUB4 (Itaú Unibanco): up 0.6%, driven by defensive flows into banks as long-term yields declined.
- BBDC4 (Bradesco): up 0.6%, driven by rotation into financials amid expectations of a Selic cut.
- AXIA3 (Axia Energia): up 1.4%, driven by demand for more defensive names on B3.
- WEGE3 (WEG): up 0.5%, driven by improved sentiment in industrial and exporter stocks.
Top Losers
- MRFG3 (Marfrig): down 0.9%, driven by profit-taking after a weaker session in proteins and commodities.
- VALE3 (Vale): down 2.1%, driven by lower iron ore prices and pressure on miners.
- PETR4 (Petrobras): down 0.8%, driven by weaker oil after signs of geopolitical easing.
- SUZB3 (Suzano): down 0.7%, driven by adjustment in FX-sensitive commodity names.
- CSNA3 (CSN): down 0.5%, driven by weaker steel and iron ore prices.
Weekly Bulletin - World
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq react to AI earnings and geopolitical backdrop
Reuters reported U.S. index futures moved higher after strong AI-linked company forecasts, while markets also tracked earnings and Middle East developments.
Palantir raises guidance and reinforces AI demand thesis
Palantir raised its annual revenue guidance again, citing strong government and commercial demand for its AI and data solutions.
Amazon supports Wall Street while Apple disappoints in earnings week
Amazon posted its strongest revenue growth in more than four years, helping offset Apple weakness and easing part of the anxiety around the AI cycle.
The U.S. labor market returns to the center of Fed attention
With fresh employment data released through the week, investors adjusted U.S. rate expectations and monitored signs of labor-market cooling.
Payrolls and unemployment remain triggers for the S&P 500
Soft U.S. employment readings renewed the debate on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased equity-market sensitivity to every new data release.
ADP shows a slowdown in U.S. private payrolls
Private payroll growth in July was 44,000, below the revised June reading and below Reuters consensus, signaling a moderation in activity.
S&P 500 rises, but macro data and concentrated earnings still worry markets
Reuters noted that over one quarter of S&P 500 companies were set to report during the week, increasing volatility in technology and industrial names.
Palantir jumps with earnings and revenue above consensus
According to CNBC, the company posted US$1.94 billion in revenue, up 93% year over year, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 149%.
Big tech continues to drive the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500
Recent AI-related earnings helped sustain the Wall Street rally, with the growth narrative still concentrated in a small group of major technology companies.
Top Gainers
- PLTR (Palantir Technologies): up 29.0%, driven by another guidance increase and strong demand for AI products.
- CAT (Caterpillar): up 5.0%, driven by improved guidance and demand related to AI data centers.
- ON (ON Semiconductor): up 7.5%, driven by quarterly revenue guidance above estimates.
- AMZN (Amazon): up 5.0%, driven by strong revenue growth and a better outlook for AWS.
- MSFT (Microsoft): up 2.0%, driven by continued optimism around Azure and corporate AI spending.
Top Losers
- AAPL (Apple): down 7.2%, driven by weaker guidance for the next quarter.
- TSLA (Tesla): down 3.0%, driven by big-tech adjustment after mixed sector earnings.
- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): down 2.4%, driven by caution on margins in AI semiconductors.
- MRK (Merck): down 1.8%, driven by sector rotation ahead of new macro data.
- NFLX (Netflix): down 1.5%, driven by profit-taking after a run-up in technology stocks.
Weekly Bulletin - Crypto
Bitcoin ETFs end July with net inflows after two months of outflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended July with US$172.4 million in net inflows, reversing two months of losses, although the final session of the month was pressured by selling.
Bitcoin and Ether forecasts are cut by Citi after weak flows
Citi lowered its 12-month forecasts for BTC and ETH, citing weaker investor appetite, negative ETF flows and limited regulatory progress in the U.S.
XRP leads inflows among altcoin ETFs in July
XRP-linked funds attracted US$27.29 million in July and extended a four-month streak of net inflows, according to data cited by CryptoRank.
Ether ETFs outpace Bitcoin in July with stronger flows
CoinDesk reported that Ether funds captured US$342.85 million in July, well above the Bitcoin pace, showing institutional rotation toward ETH.
U.S. Senate advances bill to regulate stablecoins and crypto
The bill introduced by Republicans proposes compliance rules, anti-money-laundering requirements and stablecoin treatment, a relevant step for sector regulation.
Crypto and AI-linked assets react to risk appetite on Wall Street
Optimism around technology and AI companies improved sentiment in risk assets, with an indirect spillover to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin remains the main reference for the crypto market
Reuters kept BTC as the main risk barometer for the sector in a week marked by moderate volatility and sensitivity to ETF flows and U.S. macro data.
Crypto market tracks Nasdaq and S&P 500 during earnings week
As Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reacted strongly to major earnings, the crypto market remained sensitive to the same risk-appetite flows.
U.S. labor data may move Bitcoin and Ether
A moderation in private-job creation reinforced the view that BTC and ETH are highly sensitive to any shift in the U.S. yield curve.
Top Gainers
- BTC (Bitcoin): up 2.0%, driven by improved global risk appetite and selective ETF inflows.
- ETH (Ethereum): up 1.5%, driven by stronger listed-fund inflows and clearer regulatory expectations.
- XRP (XRP): up 4.0%, driven by a net ETF inflow streak and a narrative of improved legal clarity.
- SOL (Solana): up 3.2%, driven by continued interest in altcoins and renewed institutional appetite.
- ADA (Cardano): up 2.6%, driven by rotation into altcoins amid better market sentiment.
Top Losers
- HBAR (Hedera): down 3.5%, driven by uneven flow in altcoin funds and lower liquidity.
- AVAX (Avalanche): down 3.1%, driven by profit-taking after recent volatility.
- DOT (Polkadot): down 2.8%, driven by investor selectivity outside the largest tokens.
- LINK (Chainlink): down 2.4%, driven by technical adjustment and weaker short-term flow traction.
- BNB (BNB): down 1.9%, driven by regulatory caution and rotation toward assets with spot ETFs.