Brazil raises 2026 inflation forecast, adding pressure on interest rates
The Brazilian government now projects 2026 IPCA inflation at 5.1%, above the central bank target, while keeping the Selic rate at 14.25% as a restrictive policy benchmark.
2026-07-27
Weekly Investment Bulletin - 2026-07-27
Weekly recap covering a revised IPCA forecast, Selic at 14.25%, gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, new U.S. tariffs, lower Bitcoin and Ethereum forecasts and crypto ETF flows.
Weekly Bulletin - Brazil
Brazil inflation stays above target as markets track IPCA
The new official 2026 inflation forecast came in at 5.1%, above the 3% target center, amid still-pressured services prices and a cautious tone from the central bank.
Selic at 14.25% stays in focus for the second half of the year
The monetary authority kept the benchmark rate at 14.25% after a 25-basis-point cut in June, signaling rates remain restrictive to curb inflation.
Real rates and inflation keep pressure on the Ibovespa and fixed income
The revision of 2026 inflation to 5.1% reinforced expectations of higher-for-longer rates, a scenario that typically weighs on equities, credit and capital-cost-sensitive sectors.
Central bank remains a key source for Brazilian market quotes and reports
The central bank continues to provide the official reference for exchange-rate quotes and financial bulletins, useful for tracking currency, interest rates and expectations in real time.
B3 remains the hub for Brazilian equity news and liquidity
B3 quotes page brings together the most-traded shares and helps gauge Brazilian equity market flow throughout the week.
Market recalibrates outlook for inflation, the currency and consumption in Brazil
With inflation projected above target and Selic still at 14.25%, investors are watching consumption, retail and credit-dependent sectors more closely.
Recent inflation data keep the focus on Brazilian monetary policy
The combination of resilient inflation and elevated rates reinforces the view that monetary policy will remain the key driver for local assets in the coming weeks.
Brazilian economy in focus as inflation, rates and the currency dominate the agenda
Agência Brasil's economic coverage remains focused on inflation, activity and monetary-policy decisions, key themes for the performance of stocks and the real.
Top Gainers
- BPAN4 (Banco Pan): up 25.97%, driven by strong demand seen in the day's quotes.
- RAIZ4 (Raízen): up 4.71%, tied to the stock's positive move in the tracked session.
- EMBR3 (Embraer): up 4.4%, driven by buying flow during the session.
- USIM5 (Usiminas): up 2.88%, reflecting the gain at the tracked close.
- AZUL4 (Azul): up 2.61%, in line with the day's top gainers list.
Top Losers
- BRAV3 (Brava Energia): down 3.09%, pressured by selling during the session.
- MBRF3 (Marfrig): down 3.08%, tied to the negative performance seen in the day's quote.
- COGN3 (Cogna): down 2.98%, reflecting weakness at the tracked close.
- PRIO3 (PRIO): down 2.92%, amid profit-taking during the session.
- NATU3 (Natura): down 2.83%, in line with the day's top losers list.
Weekly Bulletin - World
S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise as U.S. inflation comes in softer
The S&P 500 gained 0.38% and the Nasdaq 0.90% on July 14 after June CPI came in below consensus, boosting risk appetite and bets on steady rates at the Fed meeting.
Trump administration tariffs return to the center of Wall Street's agenda
Reuters reported new 10% and 12.5% tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded higher ahead of another round of data and earnings.
Big Tech and AI weigh on Nasdaq ahead of earnings
Futures fell as caution built around major technology earnings, amid doubts over AI spending and the direction of chip demand.
Softer U.S. inflation lowers odds of Fed tightening
The weaker June inflation reading cut short-term rate-hike bets and helped ease Treasury yields, according to Reuters.
Fed releases July monetary policy report
The Federal Reserve's July report gave markets fresh guidance on activity, inflation and credit, in a week marked by mixed growth and price signals.
U.S. banks help support the market
Solid earnings from major banks, combined with softer CPI, supported the S&P 500 and reduced risk aversion in mid-July.
Oil, the Middle East and tariffs shake investor sentiment
Middle East tensions and new U.S. tariffs added volatility to equity futures, as investors recalculated inflation and cost impacts for companies.
U.S. market refocuses on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Fed
The mix of interest rates, inflation and tech earnings continues to drive the direction of major U.S. indexes heading into the final stretch of July.
Tracking CNBC helps map the pulse of the U.S. market
CNBC's coverage remains focused on indexes, interest rates and corporate earnings, themes that continue to guide U.S. stock markets.
Top Gainers
- IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): up 4.0%, driven by strong demand for bitcoin ETFs in the recent period.
- ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust): up 3.5%, driven by inflows into ether ETFs.
- JPM (JPMorgan Chase): up 2.8%, supported by strong earnings among major banks in July.
- GS (Goldman Sachs): up 2.4%, reflecting the financial sector's positive reaction to earnings.
- NVDA (NVIDIA): up 2.1%, linked to appetite for technology names amid the AI debate.
Top Losers
- TSLA (Tesla): down 3.6%, tied to rotation out of technology amid earnings caution.
- AAPL (Apple): down 2.9%, reflecting pressure on big tech ahead of earnings releases.
- MSFT (Microsoft): down 2.7%, in line with the week's technology sell-off.
- AMZN (Amazon): down 2.5%, driven by concern over the pace of AI spending.
- GOOGL (Alphabet): down 2.3%, pressured by profit-taking in growth stocks.
Weekly Bulletin - Crypto
Reuters: Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether forecasts as ETF flows weaken
Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to US$82,000 and Ether to US$2,240, citing negative ETF flows and weaker investor appetite.
Bitcoin ETFs extend streak of weekly U.S. inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a third straight week of net inflows, although the tail end of the week showed notable outflows.
Ether ETFs draw fresh capital, supporting the crypto market
Ether ETFs took in new inflows in July, while bitcoin regained positive flows in select sessions, according to data tracked by CoinDesk.
Bitcoin and Ether react to a more cautious read from banks and asset managers
Citi's revision reinforced the debate over structural demand, especially after weeks of unstable ETF flows for BTC and ETH.
BTC stays in focus after another round of listed-fund flows
ETF activity remains one of the main price drivers for Bitcoin, with the market trying to gauge the strength of institutional demand.
Ether gains ground in the race for institutional flows
Recent data show Ether attracting additional ETF interest, as investors seek diversification within the crypto market.
U.S. crypto legislation remains a price variable
Reuters noted that a lack of progress on U.S. digital-asset rules weighed on the market's revised forecasts.
Crypto volatility rises amid mixed Bitcoin ETF flows
Alternating ETF inflows and outflows keep the market in test mode, with institutional investors setting the short-term tone.
Crypto market ends the week focused on BTC, ETH and ETFs
Bitcoin and Ether ended the week with renewed focus on ETF flows, currently the main institutional gauge for the sector.
Top Gainers
- BTC (Bitcoin): up 3.2%, driven by a recent streak of net inflows into spot ETFs.
- ETH (Ether): up 2.8%, supported by ETF inflows and improved risk appetite.
- IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): up 4.0%, driven by positive institutional flow during the week.
- ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust): up 3.5%, favored by new inflows into ether funds.
- SOL (Solana): up 2.0%, tracking the improved sentiment in the crypto market.
Top Losers
- XRP (XRP): down 3.1%, pressured by profit-taking and a cautious read on sector liquidity.
- ADA (Cardano): down 2.7%, reflecting lower appetite for altcoins during the week.
- DOGE (Dogecoin): down 2.5%, amid typical volatility in the meme-coin segment.
- TON (Toncoin): down 2.2%, tracking the broader weakness in the alternative-coin market.
- AVAX (Avalanche): down 2.0%, reflecting rotation into more liquid assets.