Ibovespa surges nearly 3% and returns to the 178,000-point area after cooler-than-expected IPCA
The Ibovespa gained 2.97% on July 10 to 177,866.37 points after June IPCA rose 0.16%, reinforcing bets on a Selic cut in August.
2026-07-13
Weekly Investment Bulletin - 2026-07-13
Weekly recap covering the Ibovespa advance, softer-than-expected inflation, Selic at 14.25%, global markets, Bitcoin and Ether.
Weekly Bulletin - Brazil
Copom cuts Selic to 14.25% and keeps the door open for more adjustments
The central bank lowered the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point for the third straight meeting and raised its inflation projections for the relevant horizon.
Central bank sees a mix of pauses and cuts to bring inflation to target
In its latest communication, the BC said it may alternate pause periods and renewed cuts to steer inflation toward the 3% target over the policy horizon.
IPCA-15 rises and keeps annual inflation above target in Brazil
The preliminary inflation reading for June rose 0.41% and pushed the 12-month rate to 4.80%, with food and electricity prices weighing on the index.
May inflation rises to 4.72% and exceeds the target ceiling
Annual IPCA accelerated in May and moved above the tolerance band, reinforcing the view of still-pressured prices before the next phase of the rate cycle.
Ibovespa ends the week higher with banks, while Braskem remains under pressure
On Friday, the index rose 0.76% with support from banks, and Braskem again ranked among the biggest losers on financial concerns.
Market trims Selic cut expectations as inflation stays more persistent
After signs of stronger inflation from both supply and demand, economists began revising the expected pace of monetary easing in the country.
Global equities support flows into Brazilian stocks as focus stays on earnings
Risk appetite remained supported by stronger U.S. corporate profits, a backdrop that also helped B3 assets during the week.
Weak U.S. jobs data eases Treasuries and influences Brazil
A softer-than-expected U.S. labor reading helped reduce pressure on global yields and supported risk assets in Brazil.
Top Gainers
- ARML3 (Armac Locação, Logística e Serviços S.A.): up 7.93%, driven by a recovery in trading and improved sentiment toward domestic assets.
- AXIA3 (Axia Energia): up 10.21%, driven by approval of the migration to Novo Mercado.
- AXIA4 (Axia Energia): up 10.32%, driven by approval of the migration to Novo Mercado.
- EQTL3 (Equatorial): up 10.54%, driven by innovation initiatives highlighted by the market.
- CEAB3 (C&A Modas): up 12.96%, driven by position rebuilding in retail and a greater risk appetite.
Top Losers
- VVEO3 (CM Hospitalar): down 37.40%, driven by heavy selling pressure in the June 29 session.
- AZZA3 (Azzas 2154): down 17.33%, driven by a Bank of America recommendation review.
- SUZB3 (Suzano): down 7.26%, driven by a Bank of America downgrade and target-price cut.
- MBRF3 (MBRF): down 4.62%, driven by pressure from the external backdrop on the stock.
- TOTS3 (Totvs): down 3.29%, driven by profit-taking during the week.
Weekly Bulletin - World
Dow rises on weak jobs data and S&P 500 ends the week higher
On July 2, the Dow advanced and the S&P 500 was steady as a weaker labor report reduced fears of higher rates for longer.
Corporate earnings challenge the rally in the S&P 500
Reuters highlighted on July 9 that the S&P 500 was up 9% in 2026, but the market began demanding stronger results to justify new highs.
Wall Street watches fresh stock catalysts amid a heavy flow of news
Reuters market coverage continues to focus on stocks, rates and earnings, with direct impact on U.S. indexes.
Technology pressures the Nasdaq as chip weakness returns
In late June, semiconductors fell again and pushed the Nasdaq lower, reflecting valuation doubts after a strong rally.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq post their best quarter since 2020
The second quarter ended with strong gains on Wall Street, supported by growth expectations and a more constructive risk environment.
Alphabet and megacaps weigh on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Pressure on major technology firms helped drag the indexes lower on June 22, showing sensitivity to moves in just a few heavy-weight stocks.
Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether forecasts amid negative ETF flows
The bank lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to US$82,000 and Ether to US$2,240, citing weaker ETF flows.
Chipmakers try to stabilize Nasdaq after the sector selloff
Semiconductor appetite remained the main short-term driver for the U.S. tech index, according to Reuters coverage.
Geopolitics increases volatility in U.S. stocks
U.S.-Iran negotiations and rate readings pressured the market, increasing swings across stocks and benchmark indexes.
Top Gainers
- TSLA (Tesla): up 7.5%, driven by quarterly deliveries above expectations and rotation into growth stocks.
- MRVL (Marvell Technology): up 9.6%, driven by inclusion in the S&P 500 and stronger semiconductor demand.
- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): up not disclosed, driven by a chip-sector recovery; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- NVDA (NVIDIA): up not disclosed, driven by improved sentiment toward AI and semiconductors; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- MSFT (Microsoft): up not disclosed, driven by strength in software and cloud; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
Top Losers
- TSLA (Tesla): down 7.5%, driven by a negative market reaction to margins and growth expectations.
- GOOGL (Alphabet): down not disclosed, driven by pressure on technology megacaps; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- MU (Micron Technology): down not disclosed, driven by profit-taking in chips; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- INTC (Intel): down not disclosed, driven by weakness in the semiconductor sector; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- SMCI (Super Micro Computer): down not disclosed, driven by pressure in AI and hardware-linked shares; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
Weekly Bulletin - Crypto
Bitcoin retreats and Citi cuts forecast as ETF flows turn negative
Bitcoin traded near US$58,864 on July 1, while Citi lowered its 12-month forecast to US$82,000 amid weaker net ETF inflows.
Ether also loses ground and Citi cuts target to US$2,240
Reuters said Ether was near US$1,585.63, pressured by weak ETF flows and a lack of regulatory catalysts.
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs return to net inflows during the week
On July 7, spot Bitcoin ETFs took in US$265.69 million on the day and Ether funds drew US$20.66 million, signaling a brief improvement in institutional demand.
Bitcoin ETFs end their outflow streak with US$221.7 million in inflows
The July 3 rebound was led by Fidelity and ARK, ending a 10-day streak of redemptions from BTC funds.
Strategy Bitcoin sales highlight pressure on crypto treasury companies
Reuters noted on July 13 that digital-asset treasury companies have lost some market momentum, with the crypto-treasury model facing tests.
Bitcoin loses half its value from the peak and tests psychological support
Reuters observed in June that Bitcoin had fallen about 50% from its October peak, keeping the market focused on key technical support levels.
Bitcoin ETF flows remain volatile in daily data
The latest daily series shows alternating inflows and outflows in BTC funds, underscoring the sector sensitivity to liquidity and risk.
Crypto market tracks the drop in global risk appetite
Recent flow deterioration and caution around risk assets helped extend volatility in Bitcoin, Ether and related ETFs.
Crypto keeps reacting to rates, ETFs and global liquidity
Recent behavior in major digital assets continues to be driven more by financial flows and rate expectations than by isolated price narratives.
Top Gainers
- SOL (Solana): up not disclosed, driven by rotation into altcoins and a temporary improvement in crypto flows.
- ETH (Ether): up not disclosed, driven by the return of net inflows into spot ETFs.
- BTC (Bitcoin): up not disclosed, driven by temporary net ETF inflows after a streak of outflows.
- XRP (XRP): up not disclosed, driven by stronger speculative appetite in altcoins.
- HYPE (Hyperliquid): up not disclosed, driven by positive flows into growth-themed tokens.
Top Losers
- BTC (Bitcoin): down not disclosed, driven by ETF outflows and Citi forecast cuts.
- ETH (Ether): down not disclosed, driven by weaker fund traction and price weakness.
- IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): down not disclosed, driven by volatility in Bitcoin ETF flows.
- GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust): down not disclosed, driven by redemptions and rotation into other vehicles.
- ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust): down not disclosed, driven by recent variation in Ethereum flows.