Ibovespa rises 2.95% for the week with banks and lower futures rates
The Ibovespa closed June 26 up 0.76% at 173,295.14 points, accumulating a 2.95% weekly gain amid yield-curve repricing and support from banks.
2026-07-06
Weekly Investment Bulletin - 2026-07-06
Weekly recap covering the Selic cut to 14.25%, the dollar at R$5.17, Ibovespa, Focus, global markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Weekly Bulletin - Brazil
Copom cuts Selic to 14.25% and keeps next step open
In the minutes and recent communication, the central bank signaled a mix of pauses and resumed cuts to bring inflation to target after reducing the Selic by 0.25 percentage point.
IPCA-15 accelerates to 4.80% in 12 months and reinforces inflation pressure
IPCA-15 rose 0.41% in June and accumulated 4.80% in the 12 months through the second preview, above the central bank target and with food weighing on the result.
Central bank signals strategy with pauses and cuts to converge inflation
The monetary authority said it may alternate pause periods and cuts to bring inflation to the 3% target by the first quarter of 2028, reducing the need for abrupt tightening.
Brazil inflation ends May at 4.72% and exceeds target ceiling
Annual inflation rose to 4.72% in May, above market expectations, reinforcing the view of inflation pressure before the monetary-policy decision.
S&P 500 builds momentum and supports global risk appetite
The more than 14% advance in U.S. markets in the second quarter supported flows into risk assets, with indirect effects on emerging exchanges such as B3.
U.S. jobs data eases tightening fears and influences Brazilian rates
A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report helped reduce pressure on Treasuries and supported equities, with effects on Brazil local yield curve.
Banks lead the Ibovespa while Braskem pressures the negative side
During the week, the index was supported by banks, while Braskem again appeared among the negative highlights due to concerns about the company financial situation.
Economists adjust Selic forecasts amid more persistent inflation
After signs of stronger inflation from supply and demand factors, the market started revising expectations for the path of Selic cuts in 2026.
Top Gainers
- ARML3 (Armac Locação, Logística e Serviços S.A.): up 7.93%, driven by a recovery move in the June 29 session and greater appetite for shares linked to the domestic economy.
- AXIA3 (Axia Energia): up 10.21%, driven by approval of the migration to Novo Mercado.
- AXIA4 (Axia Energia): up 10.32%, driven by approval of the migration to Novo Mercado.
- EQTL3 (Equatorial): up 10.54%, driven by innovation initiatives highlighted by the market.
- CEAB3 (C&A): up 12.96%, driven by retail volatility and position rebuilding in the sector.
Top Losers
- VVEO3 (CM Hospitalar): down 37.40%, driven by heavy selling pressure in the June 29 session.
- AZZA3 (Azzas 2154): down 17.33%, driven by a Bank of America recommendation review and cost concerns.
- SUZB3 (Suzano): down 7.26%, driven by a Bank of America downgrade and target-price cut.
- MBRF3 (MBRF): down 4.62%, driven by pressure from the external backdrop on the stock.
- TOTS3 (Totvs): down 3.29%, driven by profit-taking during the week.
Weekly Bulletin - World
Dow rises and S&P 500 ends the week higher after weak U.S. jobs data
The Dow advanced more than 1% on July 2 and the S&P 500 was stable as the market reacted to a weaker labor report that reduced rate concerns.
S&P 500 keeps positive trend after best first half since 2024
The index gained about 9.5% in the first half of 2026 and more than 14% in the second quarter, supporting global risk sentiment.
Tech weighs on Wall Street as chips fall and Nasdaq weakens
On June 26, the S&P 500 closed slightly lower, with sharp declines in chip-linked shares and questions about valuation in the technology sector.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq post best quarter since 2020
At the June close, the S&P 500 rose 14.9% for the quarter and the Nasdaq gained 21.4%, reflecting confidence in economic growth and corporate results.
Alphabet and megacaps pressure S&P 500 and Nasdaq
On June 22, U.S. indexes closed lower, with technology leading the correction and caution rising toward large growth companies.
Nasdaq rebounds as investors buy chipmakers after heavy selling
The market found support in semiconductor names, showing that technology remains the main short-term driver in New York.
Geopolitical tension increases volatility in U.S. stocks
The combination of U.S.-Iran negotiations and a more expensive technology valuation picture reinforced volatility in the heaviest S&P 500 sectors.
Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether forecasts as ETF flows turn negative
The bank reduced its 12-month forecast for Bitcoin to US$82,000 and Ether to US$2,240, citing weaker ETF appetite and lack of regulatory progress.
Wall Street ends the half-year supported by earnings and growth expectations
Despite June weakness, major U.S. indexes ended the half-year positive, preserving a favorable bias for global assets.
Top Gainers
- TSLA (Tesla): up 7.5%, driven by quarterly deliveries above expectations, despite the market later negative reaction.
- MRVL (Marvell Technology): up 9.6%, driven by imminent S&P 500 inclusion and renewed semiconductor demand.
- DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group): up not disclosed, driven by speculative flow; the percentage was not used to avoid inventing data.
- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): up not disclosed, driven by a chip-sector recovery; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- NVDA (NVIDIA): up not disclosed, driven by rotation into semiconductors; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
Top Losers
- TSLA (Tesla): down 7.5%, after the market prioritized margins and uncertainty over continued growth pace.
- GOOGL (Alphabet): down not disclosed, driven by pressure on technology megacaps; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- SMCI (Super Micro Computer): down not disclosed, driven by weakness in AI and chip-linked names; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- MU (Micron Technology): down not disclosed, driven by profit-taking in memory shares; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- INTC (Intel): down not disclosed, driven by pressure in the semiconductor segment; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
Weekly Bulletin - Crypto
Bitcoin falls to lowest since 2024 and Citi cuts forecast to US$82,000
Reuters reported Bitcoin near US$58,864 on July 1, while Citi cut its 12-month forecast to US$82,000 amid negative ETF flows.
Ether also loses momentum and Citi cuts target to US$2,240
Ether traded near US$1,585.63 and received a Citi forecast cut, with the bank citing weaker fund flows and lack of regulatory progress.
Bitcoin ETFs post outflows while Ether resumes inflows
On July 1, Bitcoin funds posted net outflows of US$294.62 million, while Ether ETFs returned to positive territory with US$14.89 million in inflows.
Weekly Bitcoin ETF flow remains negative in the U.S.
The latest data indicate net outflows of US$1.48 billion in the June 25 to July 1 window, reinforcing fragile institutional demand for BTC.
Crypto market adjusts rotation among Bitcoin, Ether and Solana ETFs
Recent reports showed mixed flows across BTC, ETH and Solana products, with institutional appetite rotating quickly among the main digital assets.
Bitcoin loses half its value from the peak and tests psychological support
Reuters noted in June that Bitcoin had lost about 50% from its October high, increasing attention to key technical levels.
Market watches US$60,000 as technical reference for Bitcoin
Analysts cited by Reuters treated the US$60,000 level as relevant psychological support for defining new short-term selling pressure.
ETF pressure reinforces cautious narrative in crypto market
The combination of fund outflows, price weakness and lack of regulatory catalysts helped explain the crypto correction from late June into July.
Rates and liquidity remain central to the view on Bitcoin and Ether
The price decline came alongside lower global risk appetite during part of the week, showing crypto sensitivity to international financial conditions.
Top Gainers
- SOL (Solana): up not disclosed, driven by positive ETF rotation and greater institutional interest; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- ETH (Ether): up not disclosed, driven by resumed net inflows into spot ETFs; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- HYPE (Hyperliquid): up not disclosed, driven by inflows into products linked to the asset; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- BTC (Bitcoin): up not disclosed, driven by intraday technical rebounds; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- XRP (XRP): up not disclosed, driven by speculative flows into alternatives to BTC; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
Top Losers
- BTC (Bitcoin): down not disclosed, driven by ETF outflows and Citi forecast cut; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- ETH (Ether): down not disclosed, driven by weaker fund flows and less price traction; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): down not disclosed, driven by continued Bitcoin ETF outflows; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust): down not disclosed, driven by volatility in Ether ETFs; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.
- FETH (Fidelity Ethereum Fund): down not disclosed, driven by irregular flows in Ethereum products; the percentage was not disclosed by the consulted source.