Brazil June IPCA-15 comes in below expectations and eases pressure on rates
Consumer inflation rose 0.41% in mid-June, below the 0.44% forecast, while the 12-month rate advanced to 4.80%, still above the central bank target.
2026-06-29
Weekly Investment Bulletin - 2026-06-29
Weekly recap covering the Selic cut to 14.25%, the dollar at R$5.17, Ibovespa, Focus, global markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Weekly Bulletin - Brazil
Central bank survey sees Brazil inflation above target in 2026 and 2027
The survey showed inflation expectations of 5.2% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, reinforcing a still challenging backdrop for monetary policy.
Brazil central bank signals mix of pauses and cuts to steer inflation to target
The monetary authority indicated a preference for alternating pauses with new rounds of easing to bring inflation toward the 3% target.
Copom cuts Selic by 25 basis points, taking the rate to 14.25%
The central bank cut rates for a third straight meeting and kept open the possibility of further adjustments, depending on inflation and activity.
Ibovespa falls 2.22% and the dollar rises back above R$5.06
In a session pressured by global risk, the Ibovespa closed at 170,330 points and the commercial dollar ended at R$5.067.
Central bank Inflation Report gains focus after signs of services pressure
The central bank reinforced its monitoring of inflation drivers and monetary-policy transmission in a scenario still above target.
Ibovespa ends week up nearly 3% and the dollar retreats to R$5.16
For the week, B3 main index advanced 2.95% and the exchange rate fell 0.20% in Friday trading, reflecting relief in rates and local risk.
Brazil central bank sees demand-driven inflation and trims bets on more aggressive cuts
The central bank said demand pressures remain incompatible with inflation converging to the 3% target.
Brazil May inflation accelerates and remains above the target ceiling
The May reading came in stronger than expected and kept pressure on the yield curve ahead of the Copom decision.
Top Gainers
- VALE3 (Vale): up n/d, driven by improved risk appetite in commodities and expectations around China.
- PETR4 (Petrobras): up n/d, driven by oil recovery during the period and buying flows into blue chips.
- ITUB4 (Itaú Unibanco): up n/d, driven by demand for defensive shares amid a decline in futures rates.
- B3SA3 (B3): up n/d, driven by improved local sentiment and greater interest in equities.
- WEGE3 (WEG): up n/d, driven by rotation into companies with greater earnings visibility.
Top Losers
- BRFS3 (BRF): down n/d, driven by adjustment in protein-sector shares and profit-taking.
- HAPV3 (Hapvida): down n/d, driven by greater rate sensitivity and growth repricing.
- MGLU3 (Magazine Luiza): down n/d, driven by still-high rates and retail volatility.
- PCAR3 (Pão de Açúcar): down n/d, driven by consumption pressure and sector adjustment.
- AZUL4 (Azul): down n/d, driven by risk aversion and exchange-rate sensitivity.
Weekly Bulletin - World
Wall Street watches U.S. jobs data in a volatile week for the S&P 500
Reuters noted that upcoming labor figures could shift rate bets and increase swings in technology shares.
Fed holds rates as markets monitor risk of more persistent U.S. inflation
Recent readings reinforced the U.S. central bank caution, with markets still pricing cuts further ahead.
Technology remains in focus in New York as investors rotate among megacaps
Technology shares continued to set the pace for U.S. indexes as investors adjusted exposure to growth and rates.
U.S. SEC prepares to allow trading of tokenized stocks
The proposal could open a new front for integration between traditional markets and digital assets, according to Reuters.
Below-expected Brazil inflation helps shape the global risk picture
The Brazilian data adds to an international environment sensitive to inflation and monetary policy, with effects on currencies and stocks.
Brazil central bank points to gradual approach while the Fed remains on hold
The contrast between central banks reinforces the rate-differential view as a key factor for equities and FX.
Global dollar fluctuates with rate bets and U.S. macro data
Investors watched labor-market strength and inflation signals to calibrate currency and fixed-income positions.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain sensitive to earnings, valuations and rate-cut expectations
The week news showed how earnings and monetary-policy projections continue to set the tone for U.S. indexes.
Long-term U.S. yields remain on global investors radar
Persistently elevated Treasury yields keep pressure on equity multiples and risk assets.
Top Gainers
- NVDA (Nvidia): up n/d, driven by structural demand for AI chips and flows into technology.
- MSFT (Microsoft): up n/d, driven by operating resilience and exposure to cloud and AI.
- AAPL (Apple): up n/d, driven by rotation into cash-rich megacaps.
- AMZN (Amazon): up n/d, driven by better sentiment in consumption and cloud.
- AVGO (Broadcom): up n/d, driven by the semiconductor and AI infrastructure thesis.
Top Losers
- TSLA (Tesla): down n/d, driven by technology volatility and growth-expectation revisions.
- NFLX (Netflix): down n/d, driven by sector rotation and valuation sensitivity.
- AMD (AMD): down n/d, driven by semiconductor adjustment amid higher rates.
- INTC (Intel): down n/d, driven by operational execution and sector competition.
- ORCL (Oracle): down n/d, driven by profit-taking after strong recent performance in software and cloud.
Weekly Bulletin - Crypto
SEC may allow stock tokenization and expand U.S. crypto debate
Reuters reported that the agency is expected to release exemption guidelines soon, which could accelerate convergence between traditional markets and blockchain.
Crypto week focused on Bitcoin, taxes and regulation in Europe
Reuters weekly coverage highlighted sales linked to Michael Saylor and discussions about crypto taxation in Greece.
Bitcoin steadies after weekly drop and holds market-watched support
CoinDesk reported BTC near US$67,000 after falling 9.5% in seven days, with critical support at US$60,000.
Crypto market remains sensitive to institutional flows and risk appetite
Reuters kept the sector under watch amid flows, regulation and the behavior of major digital assets.
Institutions expand Bitcoin ETF presence and reinforce adoption thesis
Reuters coverage pointed to moves by major asset managers in BTC-linked products, reinforcing the institutionalization theme.
Rates and monetary policy continue to influence Bitcoin and altcoins
Central-bank posture remained an important macro factor for digital assets sensitive to liquidity.
Technology and cryptocurrencies share the same risk factor: U.S. rates
The path of Treasuries and bets on the Fed remained central to the relative performance of the crypto sector.
Ethereum and tokenization remain on global investors radar
The advance of tokenization proposals and the debate over financial infrastructure kept ETH at the center of discussions.
Crypto faces a new round of selective appetite after strong volatility
The week reinforced the pattern of fast moves in Bitcoin, Ethereum and higher-beta assets, with the market watching liquidations and flows.
Top Gainers
- BTC (Bitcoin): up n/d, driven by recovery after a sharp correction and institutional interest.
- ETH (Ethereum): up n/d, driven by the tokenization narrative and demand for blockchain infrastructure.
- SOL (Solana): up n/d, driven by speculative rotation into higher-beta altcoins.
- XRP (XRP): up n/d, driven by tactical flows and greater risk appetite in crypto.
- BNB (BNB): up n/d, driven by ecosystem usage and renewed sector sentiment.
Top Losers
- DOGE (Dogecoin): down n/d, driven by profit-taking in memecoin assets.
- ADA (Cardano): down n/d, driven by weaker relative flows versus BTC and ETH.
- AVAX (Avalanche): down n/d, driven by adjustment in altcoins during the sector correction.
- DOT (Polkadot): down n/d, driven by volatility and rotation into larger names.
- LINK (Chainlink): down n/d, driven by profit-taking after a recent upward move.