2026-06-22
Weekly recap covering the Selic cut to 14.25%, the dollar at R$5.17, Ibovespa, Focus, global markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The Brazilian central bank Monetary Policy Committee cut rates by 0.25 percentage point, from 14.50% to 14.25% per year, in line with market expectations and slower inflation driven by oil.
The U.S. dollar closed up 1.25% at R$5.1745, while the Ibovespa fell 0.12% to 168,249.72 points on Thursday, June 18.
B3 main index traded without a clear direction near 168,300 points, with banks supporting the market while Vale and Petrobras lacked a clear trend.
The central bank Focus survey showed a 5.11% IPCA forecast for 2026, above the 4.5% target ceiling, marking the 13th consecutive weekly increase.
Brazil Congress had a session scheduled to review the 2026 budget, while external monetary policy remained on investors radar.
Vale produced 69.7 million tons of iron ore in 1Q, up 3% year over year, while Petrobras approved R$41.2 billion in dividends related to 2025.
The index closed up 1.45% at 138,854.60 points after a low of 136,429.87, with a 1.33% monthly gain despite a 2.25% Friday decline.
The Ibovespa is up 1.3% in June, with MRV leading gains at 20%, while Usiminas plunges 20.8% among the month biggest losers.
The financial market revised its year-end rate forecast to 13.50%, as Copom assessed economic indicators at its 279th meeting.
Analysts project IPCA increases of 5.30% and 4.10% for 2026 and 2027, above previous estimates of 5.0% and 4.0%.
U.S. indexes renewed highs as geopolitical tensions eased and investors watched expectations for Federal Reserve rates.
The Nasdaq posted its longest winning streak since 1992, with weekly gains of 3.2%, 4.5% and 6.8%, respectively.
The agreement announcement triggered a decline in oil abroad, pressuring Petrobras and the Ibovespa on June 15.
The market awaited signals on the 2026 rate path, with the Fed keeping rates unchanged on the eve of Brazil Selic cut.
Technology stocks sold off while energy rallied on June 16, with persistent volatility in the technology sector.
Sensex and Nifty rose 1.3% on June 20, while U.S. indexes fell amid stock-market volatility.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and the Federal Reserve economic projections were in focus during the week of June 23.
The Nasdaq fell 1.30% to 19,406.83 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.13% to 5,976.97 amid Israel-Iran tensions.
AI-driven gains and expectations of a more dovish Fed lifted sentiment at the start of 2026.
The official central bank document covers monetary policy, inflation and scenarios for the Brazilian economy.
Bitcoin fell 2.6% in 24 hours before the Fed rate decision, trading at US$64,849 on the morning of June 16; Ethereum declined 1.4% to US$1,770.
The digital-asset market came under pressure from U.S. rate signals; Ethereum fell 2.1% to US$1,694 at 10:39 on June 18.
On Friday, June 19, Bitcoin traded down 2.30% near US$62,423; in reais, it was worth R$323,051.
The weekly analysis tracked technical and macroeconomic factors, including altcoins, ETFs and data that move the crypto market.
Investors priced the possibility of seven increases in U.S. interest rates in 2026.
XRP fell 2.6%, Solana dropped 2.9% and Dogecoin lost 3.5% amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
Among the top cryptocurrency gainers on June 20, Sei (SEI) rose 14%, Kaia (KAIA) gained 11% and Gate (GT) advanced 10%.
Peter Brandt shared an optimistic analysis; XRP was at US$1.13, up 1.5%, while SOL was at US$237, down 3.2%.
DOGE was at US$0.377, down 4.97%; SOL at US$234, down 2.99%; and XRP at US$1.09, down 2.15%, with elevated volume.
Total crypto market capitalization stood at US$1.96 trillion, reflecting a 1.53% increase from the previous week.